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DataEvery live figure on one page MethodEvery rule, source and correction

Markets · What the markets show now

BoardEvery open Kalshi temperature bracket, read hourly GamesKalshi game markets: the price and the numbers, hourly Whale finderPolymarket weather wallets, ranked from their fills, weekly

Record · What held up once it settled

ScorecardThe settled record, week by week CalibrationDoes a 20c bracket pay one time in five? CitiesEach city's record: ruled out, the leader, calibration, when the day is decided DaysThe daily box score: every settled day, city by city CallsDated calls with a probability, graded on their date ReceiptsThe calls, the settled weeks and the retired desk The deskEvery desk's lights, from the event log, live

Research · What we found when we looked hard

StudiesFive questions, called before they were measured PiecesLong reads, decoded from the fills and the tape SymbolsGematria, graded on 22,990 games

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The board · Kalshi temperature ladders · live

Every bracket, every hour.

Every open bracket of Kalshi's daily-high and daily-low temperature ladders at the robot's latest hourly pass: the midpoint, how tight the book is, the size in bands, and whether the settlement station's reading has already ruled the bracket out. Nothing here is a recommendation; it is the market, measured.

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Source: Kalshi, read hourly · settlement-station observations

the midpoint, 0–100%ruled out by the station's reading (Kalshi settles on its own source)book: tight (spread up to 2c) · normal (up to 10c) · wide · one-sidedsize at the ask and the queue at 1c in bands: under 100 · 100–1k · over 1k
How to read a ladder

A ladder is one city, one metric (the day's high or low), one settlement date: a set of brackets that cover every temperature, one of which will settle Yes. Each rung shows the bracket's midpoint as a bar across 0–100%, how tight the book is (tight up to a 2c spread, normal up to 10c, wide, or one-sided when nobody bids or nobody offers), and the contracts resting at the ask as a band. A struck-through rung is a bracket the station's confirmed running extreme has already cleared by a full degree: the observation says it cannot settle Yes, and what remains on it is the queue of Yes asks resting at one cent, shown as a band. A rung in green has settled.

Where the numbers come from

Source: the ladder logger (agents/kalshi_ladder_logger.py) writes every read to the database; board_views.sql builds this page's view from the latest read of each bracket in the last six hours. The figures are derived from Kalshi's public market data at the moment of the read (Source: Kalshi, read hourly); the verdict is computed from the settlement station's hourly observations with the method on the method page. Kalshi is a trademark of its owner; Mispricd is independent and not affiliated with Kalshi.