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Markets · What the markets show now

BoardEvery open Kalshi temperature bracket, read hourly GamesKalshi game markets: the price and the numbers, hourly Whale finderPolymarket weather wallets, ranked from their fills, weekly

Record · What held up once it settled

ScorecardThe settled record, week by week CalibrationDoes a 20c bracket pay one time in five? CitiesEach city's record: ruled out, the leader, calibration, when the day is decided DaysThe daily box score: every settled day, city by city CallsDated calls with a probability, graded on their date ReceiptsThe calls, the settled weeks and the retired desk The deskEvery desk's lights, from the event log, live

Research · What we found when we looked hard

StudiesFive questions, called before they were measured PiecesLong reads, decoded from the fills and the tape SymbolsGematria, graded on 22,990 games

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Research · the pieces

Decoded from the fills. Read off the tape.

Each piece takes a claim people repeat about these markets and tests it against the venue's own record, with the method at the end.

5 pieces · newest first · every figure computed from the fills, the tape or the desk's own watches

  1. Piece 05 · Kalshi weather · the long shots

    Long shots win, just not as often as their price says

    • 3,594 Kalshi brackets priced a day before the close, every one settled
    • From 10¢ up the price was right. At 2–10¢, 64¢ back per dollar of price
    • One winner in 18 was a long shot, and the ladder's extra 3¢ sits there

    The data behind it: Calibration

    published 2026-10-05 · every figure computed from the desk's reads

  2. Piece 04 · Kalshi weather · the latency study

    The weather was in the price before it was published

    • 217 brackets ruled out by the station's own reading, each one watched
    • Every one was already a penny when the reading reached the public feed
    • No window and no stale money: a faster poller has nothing to beat

    The data behind it: The board

    published 2026-10-03 · every figure computed from the watches

  3. Piece 03 · Polymarket weather · the whole table

    The whales are real. A minute late, the edge is gone

    • 1.33M fills, 9,898 wallets, 1,690 that clear the bar
    • They make +0.72c a share. A copier 60s behind makes −0.07c
    • The edge is a clock, not a stock pick — and which profile survives
    Hypothetical results · the copierThese results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

    The data behind it: The whale finder's mirror · Related calls: C-006

    published 2026-09-26 · every figure computed from the fills

  4. Piece 02 · Kalshi weather · the queue

    Who collects the cent on a dead contract

    • 3.1 million contracts traded on brackets the day had ruled out
    • Almost all at a cent: $608 a day for whoever is first in line
    • The queue, measured: 43,843 contracts ahead of a new ask
    Hypothetical results · the $608 a dayThese results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

    The data behind it: The scorecard · Related calls: C-002 C-003

    published 2026-09-17 · the robot keeps measuring the queue on the board

  5. Piece 01 · Polymarket weather · the whale

    The boring strategy that printed, decoded

    • 9,030 public fills, resolved and scored: $86,908 gross, +8c a share
    • Not a tail farmer. An observation bot, sold at 99c within minutes
    • Where it wins, where it loses, and why it does not work on Kalshi

    The data behind it: The whale finder · Related calls: C-005

    published 2026-09-17 · every figure computed from the fills