The favorite rule at the real ask
Per contract, week by week
the numbers
One simulated trade per market: Yes at the ask that was resting the first time the midpoint sits between 65c and 90c, plus Kalshi's taker fee, held to settlement. "Day before" is the day-ahead entry, the leg that made +6.1c a contract over 47 days of history; "same day" is the intraday one. Size is the contracts resting at that ask when the rule entered, which is the capacity a reader would have found.
| week of | entered | entries | settled | paid | mean ask | per contract | median size at ask | $ a week at the ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| reading… | ||||||||
How "per contract" is computed
per contract = mean of (1 − ask − fee) on winners and (−ask − fee) on losers, in cents; only settled entries count; a week with under 20 settled entries is shown but cannot decide anything.
The dead brackets
A bracket is dead once the station's confirmed running extreme has cleared it by a full degree. The logger reads its order book every pass: the Yes asks resting at one cent, which is the queue a new seller would stand behind, and whether any Yes bid at 3c or better is still resting on it. Brackets called dead that settled Yes anyway are the observation feed's error rate, live.
| week of | dead brackets | book reads | median at 1c | reads with no ask | reads with a stale bid | settled Yes anyway |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| reading… | ||||||
the record begins with the robot's first read on 2026-09-18, so the week of Sep 14 holds only Sep 18–20.
Where the numbers come from
The ladder logger (agents/kalshi_ladder_logger.py) writes every read to the database; scorecard_views.sql scores the weeks from those reads and the outcomes every hour, and retention.sql copies each week into a permanent table and freezes it once its raw rows leave the rolling window (method), so the record outlives the rows it was computed from. The same rows are scored offline by agents/exp_favorites.py and agents/exp_queue.py with day-clustered confidence intervals, which this page does not compute; the pieces and the calls carry those.