Mispricd
The ladder log

The rule, day by day.

A logger with no forecast records every open bracket of Kalshi's daily-high and daily-low ladders each hour, with the ask and the size resting at it. The rule scored here buys the bracket the first time its midpoint sits between 65 and 90c the day before, at the ask plus the fee, and holds to settlement. Nothing on this page is a recommendation; it is the record of a rule being tested.

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The favorite rule

Entered the day before.

One trade per market. Settled days carry the result; today's entries are open until Kalshi settles them, usually the next morning. Capacity is the size that was actually resting at the ask when the rule entered.

DayEntriesSettledWinsWin rateMean askPer contractCumulative, 1 ct eachAt the askWithin 2c$ at the ask

Open and recent entries

What the rule is holding.

MarketEntered (UTC)MidAskSize at askWithin 2cResult
The control

The same rule, entered on the day.

In the history the same-day version made nothing. It stays on the page so the day-ahead line has something to be compared against.

DayEntriesSettledWinsWin rateMean askPer contractCumulative, 1 ct each
The loggers

Rows recorded, by day.

Three research loggers: Kalshi's temperature ladders (priced, no model), Polymarket's temperature ladders against the desk's number, and Kalshi's game winners against the sharp line.

DayLoggerRowsMarketsDay-ahead rowsWith sizeSettledLast read (UTC)