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Markets

What the markets show now

BoardEvery open Kalshi temperature bracket, read hourly GamesKalshi game markets: the price and the line, hourly MidtermsKalshi's chance in every 2026 House, Senate and governor race, hourly

Record (current section)

What held up once it settled

ScorecardThe settled record, week by week CalibrationDoes a 20% bracket pay one time in five? Record sheetChoose a slice of the settled record and see how often it paid against its price CitiesEach city's record: ruled out, the leader, calibration, when the day is decided DaysThe daily box score: every settled day, city by city Forecast recordThe weather service's own forecast against the reading Kalshi settled on, city by city CallsDated calls with a probability, graded on their date

Research

What we found when we looked hard

StudiesFive questions, called before they were measured PiecesLong reads, decoded from the fills and the tape Whale finderHow Polymarket's weather traders trade, from their own fills, weekly

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DataEvery live figure on one page MethodEvery rule, source and correction

Markets · What the markets show now

BoardEvery open Kalshi temperature bracket, read hourly GamesKalshi game markets: the price and the line, hourly MidtermsKalshi's chance in every 2026 House, Senate and governor race, hourly

Record · What held up once it settled

ScorecardThe settled record, week by week CalibrationDoes a 20% bracket pay one time in five? Record sheetChoose a slice of the settled record and see how often it paid against its price CitiesEach city's record: ruled out, the leader, calibration, when the day is decided DaysThe daily box score: every settled day, city by city Forecast recordThe weather service's own forecast against the reading Kalshi settled on, city by city CallsDated calls with a probability, graded on their date

Research · What we found when we looked hard

StudiesFive questions, called before they were measured PiecesLong reads, decoded from the fills and the tape Whale finderHow Polymarket's weather traders trade, from their own fills, weekly

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Data Board Games Midterms Scorecard Calibration Calls Pieces

This page builds its sheet in your browser. With JavaScript off, the same figures are on Calibration, Cities and Games.

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Does a 20% bracket pay one time in five, every band at once?Calibration Each city's record, the leading bracket includedCities How to read any record of predictionsChecking a record

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Market data: Kalshi. Mispricd is an independent research site, not affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi. Nothing here is investment or trading advice.

Not affiliated with or endorsed by Polymarket either; Kalshi and Polymarket are named only to identify the markets measured. Full disclaimer

Measurements, not financial advice. Mispricd measures prediction markets and publishes the record with sources and timestamps on every figure. A record sheet measures settled markets only; it lists nothing open and is not a recommendation about any contract. Not affiliated with, endorsed by or sponsored by Kalshi, Polymarket, the National Weather Service or any league. Kalshi and Polymarket are trademarks of their owners, named only to identify the markets measured.